A crypto space disaster or fresh blood?

We consider the incident of the “black Wednesday”, which led to a significant falling Bitcoin and the whole cryptomarket.

Let’s start, oddly enough, with the classic stock exchanges. On November 14, trading on the S&P500 and DowJones opened with the appearance of a gap in the quotes, approximately + 50% of the previous day volatility. This is often a signal to a strong movement, which we were able to observe, noting the fall of the indices. With the arrival of institutional investors, the cryptospace is not an isolated industry, changes in the “classics” almost always affect the crypto.

Prerequisites for the Bitcoin fall on exchange began to appear from 9–00 to 11–00 UTC on November 14 at the Binance. It was higher volumes sales, but sales lots were absorbed by buyers fast. In 15–55UTC there was a huge sale deal, the volume grew in one candle on the minute chart by a dozen times.

A similar situation occurred on the Bitfinex exchange, but a little later. At 16–15UTC, the volume exceeded the average many times. Notice how the different exchanges charts are similar, and how the volumes changed after the appearance of the indicated candlestick.

Despite the obvious evidence of manipulation, we note that such a shorting game always precedes large purchases and, as a result, an increase in the rate.

Returning to the year-ago, it can be seen that the intraday volatility in November was about 7–12%. In addition, from 8 to 12 November, the bitcoin rate fell by about 30%, and on the 12th at the Binance the price of BTC was $ 5325.

On the positive side, it is worth noting that last year’s fall was caused by the prevalence of sellers over buyers, traders fixed own profits. The reason for the decline of this year, in fact, was one big deal, and at the moment there is a parity of buyers and sellers on the market.

This week decline was 13%, annual minimums were not updated on Bitfinex and Binance exchanges.

Of course, occasion such as BTH’s hard fork could be a kind of catalyst for the situation development, but most large traders agree that what happened fits well with the picture of technical analysis that we have seen recently.

Note that the cost of Bitcoin mining on average around the world at the moment is about $ 6000. In addition, big players are expected to enter the industry.

Taking into account the above, there is a reason to believe that what happened is not something out of the ordinary, and we expect positive dynamics in the coming days.

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